Market Desk

How Market Desk decides

Every call is the output of explicit, weighted rules — no black box. Each factor gets a score from −1 (bearish) to +1 (bullish) and a one-line reason; the page shows all of them so you can disagree with any.

1 · Market regime (national + international)

• Global equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, FTSE, DAX) 16% and Asia (Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai, KOSPI) 9% — set the opening tone and FII risk appetite.
• Volatility: US VIX 7%, India VIX 9% — fear spikes go with sell-offs.
• Rates & dollar: US 10-year yield 8%, Dollar Index 6% — higher yields and a strong dollar pull money out of India.
• Rupee (USD/INR) 8% and crude (Brent/WTI) 10% — India imports ~85% of its oil; costly crude hurts the deficit, inflation and the rupee.
• Gold 2% (safe-haven demand) and copper 2% (global growth).
• Domestic: Nifty's own trend 10%, breadth across the Nifty 50 5%, FII/DII flows 6%, Nifty option-chain PCR 3%, news sentiment 5%, and your India macro inputs (RBI, CPI, GDP, PMI, GST, monsoon, fiscal & current-account deficits) 8%.

Each instrument's move is measured against its own volatility (a 2% move in the VIX is not a 2% move in the Dow), mixing today's move (60%) with the one-month trend (40%). Missing inputs are dropped and the rest re-weighted. ≥ +0.35 strong risk-on · ≥ +0.12 risk-on · between ±0.12 neutral · ≤ −0.12 risk-off · ≤ −0.35 strong risk-off.

2 · Sector tailwinds

Each of 28 sectors has a sensitivity to each driver (e.g. IT +0.6 to USD/INR; OMCs −0.8 to crude; metals +0.8 to copper; realty −0.5 to yields). Today's driver moves × sensitivities give a macro tailwind, blended 55/45 with the sector index's 1- and 3-month strength against the Nifty.

3 · Technical score (daily)

Moving-average trend 18% · momentum (3m/6m) 12% · relative strength vs Nifty 12% · Supertrend 10% · RSI 10% · MACD 10% · ADX 8% · accumulation/distribution volume 8% · 52-week range position 7% · Money Flow Index 5%. Also shown: support/resistance zones from clustered swing points, trend structure (higher highs/lows), candlestick patterns, pivots, Bollinger squeeze, beta, volatility, drawdown.

4 · Fundamentals

Value (P/E and P/B against Indian sector norms, forward P/E, PEG, dividend yield), quality (ROE, margins, ROA), growth (revenue and earnings YoY), health (debt/equity, current ratio, free cash flow — skipped for banks and NBFCs), ownership (promoter and institutional holding) and the street (analyst target upside and consensus). Source: Yahoo Finance.

5 · The three calls

• Intraday (5-minute bars): VWAP 20%, EMA 9/21 15%, Supertrend 15%, RSI 10%, MACD 10%, opening-range breakout 10%, strength vs Nifty 10%, day structure 5%, CPR 5%; then tilted by the daily trend, the market regime and the 15-minute timeframe. BUY ≥ +0.35, SELL ≤ −0.35 (sell = intraday short). No fresh entries before 9:30 or after 2:30 PM. Stop = the wider of 1.5×ATR and the nearest swing/VWAP/opening-range level (capped at 2.5×ATR); targets at 1.5R and 2.5R.
• Swing (2–6 weeks): the daily technical score plus a small regime tilt. BUY ≥ +0.30. Targets at 1.5R and 3R.
• Long-term (6–18 months): fundamentals 40% · trend 25% · momentum & relative strength 17% · sector tailwind 10% · macro regime 8%. STRONG BUY ≥ 0.40 · BUY ≥ 0.20 · ACCUMULATE ≥ 0.07 · HOLD · REDUCE ≤ −0.12 · SELL ≤ −0.30. Target blends the analyst mean target with a volatility-scaled projection; stop sits under the 200-DMA / major support, never looser than −20%.

Position size = capital × risk% ÷ (entry − stop), capped at your capital. Confidence reflects how strong the score is and how many factors agree; it is capped at 92% on purpose.

6 · Backtests

The same scoring code is replayed bar by bar over history, using only data available at each bar. Swing: 2 years of daily bars, enter the day after the score crosses +0.30, 2-ATR stop / 4-ATR target / exit on a negative score or after 30 sessions, 0.25% costs. Intraday: 60 days of 15-minute bars, long and short, 1.2-ATR stop / 2-ATR target, square-off 3:15 PM, 0.08% costs. If a stock's backtest is poor, trust that stock's signals less.

Sources & limits

• Prices, fundamentals and analyst data: Yahoo Finance (NSE prices can lag by a few minutes). Flows and option chain: NSE (often blocked from hosting servers — type flows into India macro inputs if so). News: ET, Moneycontrol, Mint, Business Standard, Google News.
• News sentiment is a finance word list, not a reader: it can misjudge sarcasm or context. The optional ✨ AI note (Claude) reads the same data and headlines and writes it up.
• NSE holidays are not modelled; index constituent lists live in market.php and may need updating after rebalances.
• Nothing here is investment advice or a SEBI-registered recommendation. Markets can ignore every factor on a given day. Use stops and size small.